2015 Advocare V100 Texas Bowl Preview and Prediction: No. 20 LSU Tigers vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Written by Ryan Wright

Twitter: @HogManInLA

The 2015 college football postseason is full of great matchups in various bowl games but few can truly promote the vast offensive firepower of two distinctly different styles of offense executed with LSU’s ground game and Texas Tech’s passing attack.

The Red Raiders constructed a 7-5, 4-5 season in Big 12 play, largely behind a dynamic passing offense and defense that just hopes to slow down the opposition enough by forcing a couple of punts or a field goal here or there so the offense can run away with the game.

Tech jumped out to a 3-0 record using their quick strike offense netting a 35-24 win over the Arkansas Razorbacks. The following week they pushed TCU in a 55-52 loss but could not get over the hump against more talented teams the rest of the way falling to Baylor (63-35), Oklahoma (63-27), Oklahoma State (70-53), and West Virginia (31-26).

LSU was another team that started hot winning their first seven games, should have been eight but the season opener against McNeese State was cancelled due to inclement weather. The Tigers finished 8-3, 5-3, with head coach Les Miles job on the line after a three-game losing streak coming against Alabama (30-16), Arkansas (31-14), and Ole Miss (38-17).

LSU picked up some nice early season wins over then- No. 25 Mississippi State (21-19), No. 18 Auburn (45-21), and No. 8 Florida (35-28). LSU got Miles a job saving win against Texas A&M (19-7) in Death Valley keeping the “Mad Hatter” in Baton Rouge for at least one more season.

The Texas Bowl promises to be an offensive shootout of different styles with Tech airing it out and LSU grinding it out on the ground.

Key Matchups

LSU’s Pass Defense vs. Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes

The Red Raiders led FBS in average passing yards per game with 390 behind sophomore Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes was the nation’s seventh most prolific passer in terms of total yards with 4,283 adding 32 touchdown passes against 14 interceptions. Tech head coach Kliff Kingsburry had Mahomes attempt 517 completing 336 for a 65 percent average.

LSU had a down year stopping the pass finishing No. 50 in the nation allowing 211 yards a game. The stat is somewhat misleading considering the Tigers played the No. 3 passing team in the nation in Western Kentucky, No. 10 Ole Miss, No. 17 Mississippi State, No. 33 Arkansas, and No. 40 Texas A&M.

Mahomes picked Arkansas apart hitting the quick short routes but did not scorch the Hogs for big yards. He completed 26-of-30 passes for 243 yards with one touchdown against two picks. LSU has better cover corners than Arkansas and will look to get pressure up field with Arden Key and Lewis Neal off the edges.

Where Mahomes hurt Arkansas, as much as his accurate passing, was with his legs picking up another 58 yards on 10 carries with two touchdowns. Tech will need Mahomes to extend broken plays with his legs while LSU will hope to contain him limiting his effectiveness outside the pocket.

Texas Tech’s Run Defense vs. LSU RB Leonard Fournette

LSU put together the nation’s No. 10 rushing offense, lagging one game against a soft opponent, posting 246 yards per game. Sophomore running back Leonard Fournette was the early leader for the Heisman Trophy Award but then came up against buzz saw rush defenses in Alabama and Arkansas getting 31 and 91 yards in each game respectively. In a 38-17 loss to Ole Miss, the Rebels were the only team to keep Fournette out of the end zone all season.

Fournette ended the year with 1,741 yards and 18 touchdowns averaging 158 rushing yards per game. He is 259 yards shy of hitting the 2,000 yard rushing mark in a season and gets a matchup against one of the worst run defenses in the nation in Texas Tech. The Red Raiders allow 272 yards a game.

Game Variables

Twice during the 2015 season LSU offensive coordinator Cam Cameron put the ball into Fournette’s hands over 30 times, Florida – 31, and Texas A&M 32. After Les Miles nearly got fired at the end of the regular season over the fans’ displeasure with the passing game, will Miles feed Fournette enough times for him to become the 14th player in NCAA D-I history to rush for 2,000 yards in a season? That would give LSU, Miles, and Fournette a lot of positive press heading into the 2016 season.

On the flip side, Miles needs to show sophomore quarterback Brandon Harris is progressing in the passing game. Of the SEC quarterbacks that got a full season in without missing game time for whatever reason, Harris was the worst statistic passer in the conference completing 53 percent of his attempts for 1,904 yards with just 12 touchdowns against five interceptions. How much of the game plan does Miles and Cameron dedicate to bringing Harris along, especially at the potential expense of Fournette’s 2,000 yard season?

DeAndre Washington led the Big 12 in rush yards with 1,455 and was second in the conference with 14 scores on the ground. Washington, a senior scat-back listed at 5’8”, 200 pounds, started to come on towards the end of the season rushing for 869 yards over the last six, 145 yards per game.

LSU has the nation’s No. 26 ranked rush defense (132 per). Oklahoma was the best run defense Texas Tech played over the final six, coming in at No. 42 allowing 149 per contest. Washington got 94 on 19 carries with one score. LSU will be challenged with Washington if the passing attack takes hold. The Tigers also have to pay attention to Washington as a pass receiver out of the backfield.

Final Analysis

LSU has enough defense to slow Texas Tech and too much offensive firepower for the Red Raiders to completely slow down.

Miles will have to battle against players ready to leave Baton Rouge for the NFL, five players have signed paperwork for early NFL entry.

Tech can make a big statement with two wins over SEC teams. The Red Raiders should be up for the game.

If LSU shows up, this should be a 10-14 point win for the Tigers. If LSU does not show up, Tech could easily runaway with the game embarrassing Miles and Cameron adding a little more heat to Miles hot seat heading into next year.

Prediction: LSU 42, Texas Tech 28

Game Notes

LSU posted the fourth toughest schedule during the 2015 season. Les Miles is 6-4 in bowl games losing 31-28 last year to Notre Dame in the Music City Bowl.

Texas Tech had the 45th ranked schedule during the 2015 season. The Texas Bowl is just the second bowl game for Kingsburry winning the Holiday Bowl 37-23 over Arizona State in 2013.

Game Info

Kickoff: 9:00 p.m. ET

Coverage: ESPN

Line: LSU -7.5

Site: NRG Stadium

Location: Houston, Texas

Injuries

LSU

Travin Dural – Hamstring – out

Dillon Gordon – Achilles – out

John David Moore – undisclosed – out

Desean Smith – undisclosed – questionable

Bry’Kiethon Mouton – undisclosed – questionable

Texas Tech

Taylor Nunez – knee injury – out

Devin Lauderdale – suspended – out

Justin Murphy – knee – out

Dakota Allen – ankle – questionable

Photo credit: fox8live.com; No. 7 Leonard Fournette vs. Auburn.