2015 College Football Playoff Semifinal Preview and Prediction: Michigan State Spartans vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Written by Ryan Wright

Twitter: @HogManInLA

The 2015 College Football Playoffs promises to be another action packed tournament complementing last year’s surprise win by Ohio State. The Buckeyes knocked off Alabama 42-35 in the Sugar Bowl then proceeded to gridiron glory winning the title in a 42-20 romp over the Oregon Ducks.

The four-team format this season pits No. 1 Clemson against No. 4 Oklahoma and No. 2 Alabama against No. 3 Michigan State in what should be a heavy defense march to a national title for the winner.

Michigan State posted a 12-1, 7-1, record winning the Big Ten East Division title topping Penn State 55-16 in the regular season finale and then got a last minute LJ Scott one-yard plunge into the end zone against Iowa for a 16-13 Big Ten Championship Conference title win punching their ticket to the playoffs.

Michigan State was more ground and pound on offense, very similar to Alabama, not fearing tight games with a stingy defense. The Spartans got key wins over then- No. 7 Oregon (31-28), a season saving muffed punt snap for a win over then- No. 12 Michigan (27-23), and a marquee win over No. 3 Ohio State (17-14) knocking last year’s national champs out of the picture.

Across the nation, college football fans may be ready for an Alabama demise but that does not appear to be coming down the line anytime soon. The Tide put together a 12-1, 7-1, season winning the SEC West Division title with key wins over then- No. 20 Wisconsin (35-17), No. 8 Georgia (38-10), No. 9 Texas A&M (41-23), No. 2 LSU (30-16), and No. 17 Mississippi State (31-6). Alabama punched their second consecutive ticket to the playoffs beating No. 18 Florida 29-15 in the SEC Championship Game.

The game lines up former employer against former employee with Nick Saban going head-to-head with one of his former Michigan State assistants Mark Dantonio.

Key Matchups

Alabama RB Derrick Henry vs. Michigan State’s Run Defense

The similarities in style are persistent throughout the matchup pitting run-first offenses against great defenses. Michigan State was the nation’s No. 9 ranked run-stop unit only allowing 113 a game. Alabama had the nation’s No. 28 ranked run offense thanks to Derrick Henry. Henry won the Heisman Trophy Award leading the nation in rushing with 1,986 yards along with 23 touchdowns on the ground in 13 games played.

Alabama offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin has not been shy about highlighting his junior tailback twice giving him over 30 touches, 32 against Texas A&M and 38 against LSU, and twice gave him over 40 carries with 46 against Auburn and 44 against Florida. MSU has played some successful running teams in Oregon, No. 2 in the nation, and Ohio State, No. 12, so what Bama brings to the table will not be anything new for the Spartans. Still, having a game plan to stop Henry is one thing, doing it is another. Arkansas was the only team to limit Henry to under 100 yards in a game on a full workload finishing with 95 yards on 27 carries.

Michigan State QB Connor Cook vs. Alabama’s Pass Defense

The Crimson Tide ended up with the nation’s No. 17 pass defense limiting teams to 184 yards per game on average. The numbers are not skewed having played Ole Miss, the No. 10 ranked passing offense in the nation, Mississippi State (No. 16), Arkansas (No. 33), and Texas A&M (No. 40).

Connor Cook is the prototypical game manager having passed for 2,921 yards with 24 touchdowns against five interceptions. He completed 57 percent of his passes and showed headiness only taking 14 sacks in 369 pass attempts. Cook’s top target is arguably the Big Ten’s best in Aaron Burbridge. Burbridge led the conference with 80 receptions for 1,219 yards and had seven touchdowns. MSU’s other big threat in the passing game is MacGarrett Kings. Kings caught 38 passes for 492 yards with five touchdowns.

Eddie Jackson is Alabama’s top ball hawk in the secondary coming up with five picks this season. Jonathan Allen applies the most pressure with 10 sacks followed by Tim Williams who had 9.5. MSU’s ability to move the ball on passing downs will be affected by their ability to limit these three key players.

Michigan State’s Three-Headed Rushing Attack vs. Alabama’s Run Defense

No other way to say it but Alabama’s run defense was No. 1 in the nation limiting teams to 74 yards per game. Linebacker Reggie Ragland is the heart and soul of the defense coming up with 90 stops, 6.5 tackles for a loss and was able to cover defending six passes. Bama’s defensive front is nasty with Jonathan Allen and A’Shawn Robinson leading the way.

The Spartans deployed three running backs in 2015 using LJ Scott, Gerald Holmes, and Madre London. Scott led the pack with 691 yards followed by Holmes with 534, and London with 489. Their touches are pretty evenly dispersed but Scott is the leader with 11 touchdowns. MSU does not use the running backs in the passing game too much, so everything will be pretty straightforward for the Tide.

If Alabama can limit MSU’s three-headed monster on the ground, can Cook do enough in the pocket to keep the chains moving?

Final Analysis

Ohio State overwhelmed Alabama last year in the semifinal round coming up with 537 yards of offense, forced three Bama turnovers, and converted 10-of-18 third down attempts while limiting Alabama to 2-of-13. Bama quarterback Blake Sims had a decent game hitting 22-of-36 passes for 237 yards but his three picks buried the Tide. The other problem was stopping Ezekiel Elliot. Elliot was a freight train rushing for 230 yards on just 20 carries with two touchdowns. MSU will attempt the same blueprint.

Alabama OC Lane Kiffin has a tendency to highlight just two players, a running back and a wide receiver. Henry will get as many carries as it takes until their line wears down MSU’s defensive front, if possible, and true freshman receiver Calvin Riddley will be the main man in the passing game. If MSU can bottle up these two the Tide will be in trouble.

Alabama is more balanced this year on both sides of the ball with more experienced players on the offensive and defensive front.

Total offense: Alabama No. 51 with 423 yards per game; Michigan State No. 69 with 397.

Prediction: Alabama 31, Michigan State 17

Top Players to Watch

Alabama

OL Cam Robinson, OC Ryan Kelly, OL Dominick Jackson, RB Derrick Henry, WR Calvin Riddley

DL Jonathan Allen, DL A’Shawn Robinson, LB Reggie Ragland, DB Eddie Jackson

Michigan State

QB Connor Cook, OL Jack Conklin, OL Brian Allen, WR Aaron Burbridge

DL Malik McDowell, DL Shilique Calhoun

Game Info

Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET

Site: Cotton Bowl – AT&T Stadium

Location: Arlington, Texas

Coverage: ESPN

Line: Alabama -10

Photo credit: sportsworldreport.com; Derrick Henry breaks free against Wisconsin (2015).