2015 Liberty Bowl Preview and Prediction: Kansas State vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

Written by Ryan Wright

Twitter: @HogManInLA

The Liberty Bowl has a long and proud history hosting some of college football’s top blueblood programs since its inception in 1959 that includes Alabama, Notre Dame, Georgia, USC, Tennessee, Auburn, Penn State, and Miami. The bowl game has been in Memphis since 1965 with various conference tie-ins along the way with the most prevalent being SEC, Conference USA, Mountain West, and teams from the former Big East Conference.

The addition from the 2015 season, being played in 2016, features the Kansas State Wildcats verses the Arkansas Razorbacks pitting teacher against pupil at the head coaching level.

Kansas State head coach Bill Snyder has few equals on the collegiate level being named to the College Football Hall of Fame in 2015. The former Missouri and William Jewell quarterback and defensive back has been coaching since 1962 really making his mark on the college level starting in 1979 with the Iowa Hawkeyes as the team’s offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. In 1989, Snyder took over a failing Kansas State program and within two years gave the Wildcats a winning season going 7-4 in 1991.

Over 24 years as KSU’s head coach, retiring for three seasons from 2006-08, Snyder has posted a career win-loss record for 193-100-1 making a bowl game 17 times with a record of 7-9. Since Snyder’s return in 2009, the Wildcats have not had a losing season but are teetering on finishing below .500 if dealt a loss against the Razorbacks.

The Wildcats went 6-6, 3-6 in Big 12 play, needing a couple of late season rallies to become eligible for a bowl berth. KSU won their first three games but then hit a six-game skid losing to Oklahoma State (36-34), TCU (52-45), Oklahoma (55-0), Texas (23-9), Baylor (31-24), and Texas Tech (59-44). The Wildcats were down 21 to Iowa State but rallied for a 38-35 win and then beat in-state rival Kansas 45-14. In the regular season finale against West Virginia, Morgan Burns returned a kickoff 97-yards for a touchdown to help defeat the Mountaineers 24-23.

The Razorbacks started the season with high hopes but stumbled out of the gate before righting the ship to a 7-5, 5-3 record in SEC play. Arkansas beat UTEP but then had bad losses to Toledo (16-12) and Texas Tech (35-24). The Hogs lost a third straight falling to Texas A&M 28-21 in overtime for a second consecutive season. Before Razorback Nation gave up on Bret Bielema, the Hogs’ head coach won his first SEC road game the following week knocking off Tennessee 24-20.

Arkansas fell to Alabama the next week (27-14) but then won four straight that included wins over then- No. 18 Ole Miss (53-52) and No. 9 LSU (31-14). A blocked field goal as time was expiring against Mississippi State (51-50) cost the Hogs another conference win but the following week got back on the right side of the win-loss column defeating Missouri 28-3.

Bielema was a defensive lineman for the University of Iowa from 1989-92, was a graduate assistant for the Hawkeyes during the 1994-95 seasons, and coached linebackers at his alma mater from 1996-2001. Snyder gave Bielema his first defensive coordinator position at Kansas State, a position he held from 2002-03 before heading to Wisconsin in the same role.

The Liberty Bowl marks a nice student vs. pupil match-up and a Big 12 vs. SEC showdown for regional recruiting bragging rights.

Key Match-ups

Brandon Allen vs. Kansas State’s Pass Defense

Arkansas’ senior starting quarterback was among the best pocket passers in the SEC when the 2015 season ended. He led the conference in Quarterback Rating with a passing efficiency of 165.2 throwing for 3,125 yards with a conference-high 29 touchdowns against just seven picks.

When Allen drops back to pass, he has the nation’s top tight end Hunter Henry to target. Henry won the John Mackey Award and was a first team All-American this season after catching 46 passes for 647 yards with three touchdowns. Another top target for Allen is junior wide receiver Drew Morgan. Morgan had a breakout season in 2015 hauling in 55 passes for 751 yards with 10 touchdowns, just two scores shy of Jarius Wright’s single-season school record set in 2011.

Kansas State is well versed in seeing prolific passing offenses seeing No. 1 Texas Tech (390 yards per game), No. 7 Oklahoma State (357), No. 8 TCU (346), No. 14 Louisiana Tech – non-conference (323), No. 19 Oklahoma (308), and No. 20 Baylor (304). Seeing that many passing offenses, any team is bound to give up a few yards here and there but KSU was torched this year for 283 yards ranked No. 119 in the nation; side note, Arkansas’ pass defense was no better coming in at No. 120 out of 127 teams.

The Hogs have the No. 33 ranked passing attack getting 264 yards per contest. Expect Allen to try to put the heat on the Wildcats early in hopes of turning the game over completely to the running attack to shorten the game if possible.

Kansas State’s Offense vs. Arkansas’ Defense

Kansas State was challenged producing any sort of offense this year averaging 341 yards per game, ranked No. 108 in the nation. The Wildcats were fairly balanced with 1,971 yards on the ground and 2,125 in the passing game. Joe Hubener led the team in passing yards with 1,837 throwing nine touchdowns and nine picks and was the team’s second leading rusher with 613 yards and 13 scores. Hubener’s status for the Liberty Bowl is still in question due to injury.

Charles Jones led KSU in rushing with 656 yards scoring five touchdowns. Deante Burton was the team’s leading receiver with 34 receptions for 477 yards with a team-high four touchdowns. Kody Cook was second on the team with 27 receptions for 412 yards with three scores but took over for Hubener in the West Virginia game.

If Hubener is a no-go, the Wildcats’ offense will be without a team leader further limiting the offense. Cook completed 18 of 42 passes with three touchdowns and three interceptions in a backup role for Hubener. He also had 139 rushing yards with two scores, so not all is lost with him under center but does give the team a different look.

Kansas State will have troubles running the ball against Arkansas. One thing the Hogs do well is stop the run limiting teams to 120 yards per contest. The best Big 12 rush defense was Oklahoma allowing 149 yards a game. Against the Sooners, KSU was limited to 110 total yards of offense turning the ball over three times.

Kansas State’s Rush Defense vs. Alex Collins

Alex Collins is in rarified air in the SEC record books being just the third running back to ever top 1,000 yards in his first three seasons. Collins was the third leading rusher in the SEC putting up a quiet 1,392 yards with 17 touchdowns. Collins needs two running touchdowns to tie the school single-season record set in 1969 by Bill Burnett.

Elijah Lee is the motor that drives the KSU defense coming up with a team-high 75 tackles along with 7.5 tackles for a loss, five sacks, and two interceptions. Travis Britz has been tough against the run coming up with 11 tackles for a loss and four sacks. Jordan Willis has put the most pressure on the opposition’s quarterback with a team-high 13 tackles for a loss and a team-high 7.5 sacks.

Arkansas has a big offensive line and enough weapons to help move the chains and put points on the board against KSU. How KSU attacks Arkansas will be interesting. Keying on the run will only open up passing lanes for Allen.

Final Analysis

Arkansas just played a team somewhat similar to Kansas State in Missouri. Missouri had a limited offense and the Hogs took advantage winning 28-3. The Tigers had a tough defense but Collins was able to run for 130 yards off 30 carries with three scores. Allen was not asked to do much completing 11 of 17 passes for 102 yards with one interception.

Allen could set a single-season Arkansas touchdown passing record if he can add three more to his 2-15 stat line passing Ryan Mallett’s mark of 32 set in 2010. Chances are Collins ties or sets the school record for touchdowns in a season but Allen and Morgan come up one shy of their respective records. Bielema is not going to run up the score on his old coach. If the game turns ugly it will not be because Arkansas is trying to make Kansas State look bad.

Kansas State has not been able to manufacture much offense this year. Without Hubener, where will the offense come from for the Wildcats?

Prediction: Arkansas 38, Kansas State 17

Game Info

Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. ET

Date: Saturday, Jan. 2

Site: Liberty Bowl

Location: Memphis, Tennessee

Coverage: ESPN

Betting Line: Arkansas -12.5

Photo credit: fansidednetwork.com; Alex Collins against Auburn.