2016 Camping World Independence Bowl Preview North Carolina State vs. Vanderbilt

Written by Charlie Beuttel

Twitter: @charlie_cds3

 

North Carolina State Wolfpack (6-6) vs Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6)

Overview

The Independence Bowl has been a tradition in Shreveport (LA) since 1976 receiving its name in conjunction with the United States’ bicentennial year. To go along with its rich history, this is has been a very exciting game in recent years as 10 out of the last 14 games have been decided by a touchdown or less.

In 2015, Virginia Tech squeaked past Tulsa (55-52) in the highest scoring Independence Bowl ever. It was also the last game of the great career of former Virginia Tech head coach Frank Beamer. This year’s game will once again be exciting as the Commodores of Vanderbilt will battle the North Carolina State Wolfpack. Both teams are 6-6 but don’t let these records fool you as both squads will be fired up to finish the 2016 season above .500.

Vanderbilt

The Commodores opened the 2016 season 2-2 as they alternated wins and losses during the first four weeks of the season. Unfortunately, Vanderbilt would lose four out of their next six games to bring their record to 4-6. With two games remaining and their bowl hopes all but dashed, Vanderbilt beat Ole Miss (38-17) on Nov. 19 and then- No. 17 Tennessee (45-34) on Nov. 26 to bring their record to 6-6 automatically qualifying for a bowl game.

Vanderbilt scores on average 23.5 points a game. Their offense is almost balanced but they seem to pass the ball more as they average 194 yards a game through the air and 165.2 yards on the ground. Junior running back Ralph Webb is the star of the offensive unit as he has rushed 229 times for 1,172 yards and has 12 rushing touchdowns.

Sophomore Kyle Shurmur runs the offense from the quarterback position. Shurmur has completed 185-of-329 passes for 2,251 yards and nine touchdowns. Two wide receivers to watch on the Commodores are junior C.J. Duncan and junior Trent Sherfield. Duncan has caught a team-high 38 passes for 447 receiving yards. Sherfield has caught 31 passes for a team-high 448 yards and has one receiving touchdown.

The Commodores give up just 22.6 points a game. Vanderbilt limits their opponents to 165.4 rushing yards but gives up 245.4 passing yards a game. Junior Zach Cunningham is the team’s leading tackler racking up an impressive 119 total tackles including 16.5 for a loss, four fumble recoveries, and two forced fumbles. The anchor of the defensive line is senior defensive lineman Adam Butler who has 24 total tackles including 7.5 for a loss and four sacks. The playmaker in the Commodores secondary is junior safety LaDarius Wiley who has 75 total tackles including 2.5 for a loss and one sack.

North Carolina State

The Wolfpack opened the season 4-1 looking destined for a great season. N.C. State then stumbled losing their next four games which included losses at then- No. 3 Clemson and No. 7 Louisville. After the losing streak their record was 4-5. With the Wolfpack in danger of not qualifying for a bowl game, N.C. State then beat Syracuse (35-20) on Nov. 12 and lost to Miami (27-13) to bring their record 5-6 setting up a must-win game against North Carolina on Nov. 25. After a hard-fought battle between the in-state rivals, N.C. State won 28-21 to clinch a spot in a bowl game.

N.C. State scores on average 25.8 points a game. Their offense is more pass-heavy as they average 262.7 passing yards and only 157.4 rushing yards per contest. Sophomore quarterback Ryan Finley is one of the stars of the offense completing 224-of-372 passes for 2,824 yards with 15 touchdowns.

Two of Finley’s favorite targets are junior tight end Jaylen Samuels and sophomore wide receiver Stephen Louis. Samuels has caught a team-high 49 passes for 461 yards to go along with his four receiving touchdowns. Louis has 33 receptions for a team-high 657 yards and has two receiving touchdowns. The Wolfpack’s leading rusher is senior running back Matthew Dayes who has rushed the ball 240 times for 1,119 yards and has 10 touchdowns on the ground.

The Wolfpack gives up on average 23.2 points a game. They do a good job of limiting opponents to just 104.7 rushing yards but give up 251.3 passing yards a game. Junior safety Josh Jones is the team’s leading tackler with 106 total tackles including four tackles for a loss, two interceptions, and one sack. Junior defensive end Bradley Chubb is the playmaker on the defensive line as he has 55 total tackles including 21 for a loss and 9.5 sacks. Another playmaker is junior linebacker Jerod Fernandez, who is second on the team with 82 total tackles including 4.5 for a loss and one interception.

Game Info

Location: Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana

Time: Monday, Dec. 26, 5 p.m. (EST)

Network: ESPN2

Betting Line: North Carolina State -4

Keys to Victory

NC State must continue to rely on their air attack if they want to win the Independence Bowl. The Wolfpack averages over 260 passing yards a game and face a Vanderbilt secondary that is vulnerable giving up 245 passing yards a game. Another key for the Wolfpack is they must convert their third down opportunities. They have converted 43 percent of their opportunities during the season. They are facing a Commodore defense which allowed opponents to successfully convert 39 percent of the time.

If Vanderbilt want to win, the Commodores must figure out N.C. State’s rush defense. Vanderbilt averaged 165 rushing yards per game and have 24 rushing touchdowns this season but they are facing a Wolfpack defense allowing just 104 rushing yards per contest. Another key for the Commodores will be their aerial assault. They averaged just under 200 passing yards per contest however, the Wolfpack give up on average 251 passing yards to their opponents so the opportunities should be there for Vanderbilt to make some plays.

Prediction: N.C. State 27, Vanderbilt 24

Photo credit: ESPN.com; N.C. State QB Ryan Finley