2021 Ole Miss College Football Schedule Analysis: Hard Times Ahead for the Rebels
Written by Ryan Wright
Twitter: @RyanWrightRNG
No matter how one breaks it down, the 2020 college football season was a reprieve after four hard years on the gridiron for Ole Miss. A breath of life was pumped into the Rebels program with the hiring of offensive minded head coach Lane Kiffin. The former Florida Atlantic coach turned a 4-8 campaign in 2019 under Matt Luke into a 5-5 (4-5 SEC) revival navigating an SEC only schedule with a feather in the cap Outback Bowl win over No. 11 Indiana (26-20).
After winning four conference games for the first time since the 2015 season, fan hopes are once again high but does the 2021 schedule deliver bowling opportunities?
The big turn from two conference wins in 2019 to four in 2020 was on the scoreboard. The Rebels’ scoring offense went from ninth in the SEC averaging 26.6 per game to third posting 39.2. Kiffin’s offense made quarterback Matt Corral, running back Ealy Jerrion, tight end Kenny Yeboah, and receiver Elijah Moore SEC names.
Another helpful aid was the schedule. Although the season started out playing two of three games against Top 5 teams (No. 5 Florida and No. 2 Alabama), the Rebels did not face another ranked team until the Outback Bowl missing an in-season matchup against No. 5 Texas A&M. The schedule also provided a nice midseason four-game homestand without back-to-back road games.
The preseason look, the 2021 lineup is going to be far more difficult.
2021 Ole Miss Football Schedule Analysis
Week 1 Sept. 6 (Monday) vs. Louisville at Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, CA)
Cue Mississippi State fans with jokes about the only way Ole Miss will get to play in Mercedes-Benz Stadium is via a non-conference game. Starting off with a showdown against ACC power Louisville is challenging.
A season or two here and there aside, the Cardinals have been a solid D-I program since the 1988 season. Many may have Bobby Petrino’s 2-10 flameout from the 2018 season in their brain, but Scott Satterfield produced an 8-5 run in his first season but slid back some during the odd 2020 campaign going 4-7. Facing a challenging season, notching a win here will dictate the entire season for Ole Miss.
Week 2 Sept. 11 vs. Austin Peay at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (Oxford, MS)
Two-a-days in August will not only be about getting everyone up to speed and closing out the starting rotations, but also focused on game planning for back-to-back games with a five-day window. Facing the Governors would not normally be an issue taken too seriously, but this is a unique situation. Austin Peay was 4-5, 4-2 against Ohio Valley Conference teams, during the 2020 season. The 55-0 loss to Pittsburgh and the 55-20 defeat at the hands of Cincinnati may provide comfort.
If the Louisville game shows weaknesses in the Ole Miss offense and/or defense or if the Rebels are not physically and/or mentally ready, this could be an odd game in Oxford.
Week 3 Sept. 18 vs. Tulane at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (Oxford, MS)
As a member of the Southern and Southeastern Conference from 1922-1965, Tulane had flashes of being a great college football program. Since the 1950’s, the Green Wave has not strung together three seasons of competitive football until Willie Fritz came to town. Winning nine games in his first two season, Fritz has posted 20 wins over his last three.
The Green Wave was 6-6 last season with three losses that came down to the final minutes of the game. Any time a G5 can topple a P5, the Tulane players will be pumped.
Week 4: Bye Week Sept. 25
Week 5 Oct. 2 at Alabama – Bryant-Denny Stadium (Tuscaloosa, AL)
After a “down” 2019 season posting an 11-2, 6-2 SEC, win-loss record, Alabama head coach Nick Saban reclaimed his throne atop college football with a perfect run (13-0). A year ago, the Crimson Tide laid it on the competition averaging 48.5 points per game. The defense slipped a little per the usual Bama standards giving way to 352.2 yards per game but did so playing six Top 25 teams, four in the Top 5. This season, the offense may not be as potent, but this defense promises to be championship caliber.
Week 6 Oct. 9 vs. Arkansas at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (Oxford, MS)
The 2020 meeting with Arkansas is one of those games everyone associated with the Mississippi program, fans, players, and coaches, wish they had back. The Rebels spotted Arkansas 20 first half points before finding their groove late in the third quarter. Quarterback Matt Corral was flustered into six interceptions. If the Rebels’ offense is clicking again in 2021, this one their leader will want badly.
The Hogs may limp into this one after a four-game run that includes Texas, an upstart Georgia Southern squad and away games against Texas A&M and Georgia.
Week 7 Oct. 16 at Tennessee – Neyland Stadium (Knoxville, TN)
Developing into a college football titan from the Zora Clevenger regime (1911-1915) and taking hold in the Bob Neyland era (1926-1940), the Volunteers program has hit hard times since the 2007 season. Butch Jones put together back-to-back nine-win seasons (2015-16) offering some hope, but the team is now coming off their first three-win campaign since 1924.
Tennessee ousted Jeremy Pruitt for UCF head coach Josh Heupel hoping for some offensive fireworks. Heupel won 22 games his first two seasons with the Knights, but took a big step back in 2020 with a 6-4 season. The Volunteers will be another work in progress in 2021.
Week 8 Oct. 23 vs. LSU at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (Oxford, MS)
Coming off an SEC road game, the challenging season continues with LSU coming to town. Forget the 5-5 debacle for the Tigers in 2020, that included a 53-48 win over the Rebels, this team is stocked, loaded, and full of experienced returning starters. A potential saving grace for Ole Miss, LSU will be coming in off a home game against Florida with Alabama waiting after a bye week.
Week 9 Oct. 30 at Auburn – Jordan-Hare Stadium (Auburn, AL)
The Auburn road game could be another opportunity for the Rebels to sneak a win on the schedule depending on how the universe aligns. Like Tennessee, the Tigers are also going through transition hiring Boise State head coach Bryan Harsin to replace Gus Malzahn, who is now at UCF. How well Harsin and Co. adapt to the new surroundings and new opponents is one of the intriguing factors in the SEC this season.
To this point, Auburn’s season has not been easy with their last five games coming against Penn State, Georgia State, LSU, Georgia, and Arkansas. Following Ole Miss, they get to face A&M.
Week 10 Nov. 6 vs. Liberty at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (Oxford, MS)
No need to remind Mississippi fans about Liberty… but just in case. The Flames are coached by former Rebels’ head coach Hugh Freeze. Freeze won eight games in his first season after taking over for Turner Gill in Virginia and posted a 10-1 mark in 2020. The Flames took down one ranked team last season, No. 12 Coastal Carolina in overtime (37-34).
The Flames have some challenging games on the schedule seeing Troy and Syracuse on the road, but should have a light five-game schedule ahead of seeing Ole Miss.
Week 11 Nov. 13 vs. Texas A&M at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (Oxford, MS)
In Jimbo Fisher’s third year at College Station, he did his part to buy some good will from the Aggie faithful knocking firmly on the door of an SEC West title and a possible at-large College Football Playoff bid. A&M posted a 9-1 record than included a 41-27 win over No. 13 North Carolina in the Orange Bowl. Being on that verge of taking the next big step, one that A&M fans expect, what can Fisher do as a follow up act?
As schedules go, A&M’s is very light with road games against Colorado and Missouri through the first nine outings. After seeing Alabama on Oct. 9, the Aggies go on the road to see Missouri before returning home to see South Carolina and Auburn. The Aggies’ defense will be tough, but the offense is going through heavy transition. At this point in the season, if the pieces are there, A&M should be galvanized on offense.
Week 12 Nov. 20 vs. Vanderbilt at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (Oxford, MS)
Vanderbilt represents the end of a very important late season three-game homestand. The optimist’s or the pessimist’s view on how the season may go, the Commodores could be that sixth win needed to become bowl eligible. Or, taking on Vanderbilt may be pushing Mississippi to a better bowl with another opportunity to add to the resume in the Egg Bowl.
In what should have been a very good season for head coach Derek Mason, the 2020 season unraveled in a hurry with opt-outs leading to a winless campaign in Nashville. Notre Dame defensive coordinator Clark Lea takes over the Vandy program in his first run as a head coach. Another team in transition on the Rebels’ 2021 schedule.
Week 13 Nov. 25 at Mississippi State at Davis Wade Stadium (Starkville, MS)
As bad as a 4-7, 3-7 SEC, record looks for Mike Leach, Mississippi State was within a touchdown in the win-loss margin in three games a year ago. At the midseason point, the Bulldogs took a turn playing more competitive football, and that includes 31-24 road losses to then-No. 13 Georgia and Ole Miss. Adding to it, Leach’s personality takes some getting used to leading to rumors about unhappy players on the MSU roster. If the offseason has helped the players and coaches come together, the Bulldogs should be much improved.
Even if MSU has gelled and worked out the kinks in Leach’s Air Raid offense, their schedule is as treacherous as Mississippi’s. The non-conference games include Louisiana Tech, NC State, and Memphis with the usual SEC West slate. Facing Vanderbilt in Nashville and Kentucky at home may help MSU add some wins to their schedule.
Photo credit: OleMissSports.com; No. 2 Matt Corral