Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Texas A&M Aggies Preview and Prediction
Written by Ryan Wright
Twitter: @RyanWrightRNG
One of college football’s best kept secret rivalry games is lining up for another exciting matchup when the Arkansas Razorbacks (2-2) travel to College Station to face the No. 8 Texas A&M Aggies (3-1). A&M owns an eight-game winning streak in this series, a series that dates back to the Southwest Conference days, but five of the last six games have come down to a thrilling one-score finish pulling fans in outside of regional interest.
After a surprising start to the 2020 season, one that could easily have included another win coming against Auburn, the Hogs return from a bye to face a familiar foe. With this series renewing in 2009 as the Aggies joined the SEC, one thing that has been consistently missing for the Hogs is strong defensive play. Having already faced three ranked opponents in Georgia, Mississippi State, and Auburn, the Razorbacks have improved greatly from a year ago limiting teams from 36.8 points per game to 25.5. That defense will have to travel against a balanced A&M attack for the Hogs to secure their second road victory of the year.
The start to A&M’s 2020 season has not been particularly easy either having taken on the No. 2 team in the nation, Alabama, and then- No. 4 Florida. The 41-38 home win against the Gators opened eyes, especially after falling 52-24 the week prior to the Crimson Tide. The Aggies avoided a letdown game against Mississippi State winning 28-14 in Starkville before going on a bye. If A&M can clear the Hogs, a perfect run to the finish line might be had.
Arkansas vs. No. 8 Texas A&M
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: SEC Network
Spread: Texas A&M -12.5
When Arkansas Has the Ball
As Arkansas works through the early part of the season without benefit of non-conference cupcakes, the offense is showing signs of balanced improvement. The offensive line has knocked open holes in back-to-back efforts for 100-yard games netting a season-high 150 yards with a score against Ole Miss. With starting tailback Rakeem Boyd banged up, Trelon Smith has stepped in to fill his void. Smith has rushed for a team-high 221 yards.
An area where A&M has excelled on the field is against the run. The Aggies are locking down opposing squads to an average of 75.5 per outing. Even Alabama’s powerful ground game had troubles in the trenches coming up with 109 yards on 28 carries, but did punch it in twice. A greater effort in the run game is needed for Arkansas, especially in the red zone. Boyd is responsible for the Hogs’ lone rushing touchdown.
Where Arkansas can find some daylight moving the chains is in A&M’s secondary. The Aggies are allowing 279 yards per game with Bama going for 435 yards and four scores and Florida throwing for 313 and four scores. Arkansas field general Feleipe Franks has shown improvement over the first four games tossing for a season-high four scores against Auburn on 22-of-30 passing for 318 yards. His top targets on the outside are Treylon Burks, Mike Woods, and DeVion Warren. Burks is a rising All-SEC talent that will draw double coverage from A&M. Sneaking underneath the coverage is tailback Trelon Smith. Smith has secured 14 passes for 113 yards with one touchdown.
When Texas A&M Has the Ball
Sophomore tailback Isaiah Spiller is on track for a “most improved” award in 2020. Without benefit of all the carries afforded to those ahead of him on the SEC rushing list, Spiller is fourth in-conference with 430 yards off just 64 carries with four touchdowns. As the Hogs have clamped down against the pass, running lanes have opened up with only five in the box. Both Auburn and Ole Miss went over 240 yards against Arkansas. Spiller has gone over the 100-yard threshold three times this season with a season-high 27 carries for 174 yards with two touchdowns against Florida.
If senior dual-threat quarterback Kellen Mond is anything, he is consistently inconsistent. One game he will be held to under 200 yards and the next he’ll throw for over 300 against a top tier team. Mond upped his game against Florida hitting 25-of-35 attempts for 338 yards with three TDs tossed. When Mond drops back, he has a stable of receivers at the ready in Ainias Smith, Chase Lane, and Jalen Wydermyer.
The matchup of the game is Arkansas’ defense against A&M’s offense. The Hogs’ defense is winning games by forcing turnovers and getting key stops. Arkansas has picked off 10 passes in four games and is holding teams to a 32 percent success rate on third downs. The Aggies’ receivers are more possession targets getting over 10 yards per reception on average, but are not big play threats. If Arkansas can keep everything contained 15-yards and in, help will come into the box against Spiller. Mond has a 9/2 touchdown to interception ratio this season. Arkansas fans should not count on him giving the ball back.
Final Analysis
The last time we saw Arkansas, the defense played out of their minds for three quarters chipping in two pick-sixes against Ole Miss. Arkansas compiled 394 yards of offense against the Rebels but kept a trend of stalling nearing scoring position. Did the bye week give this offense extra time to build chemistry for the stretch run?
Forgetting the Alabama game, A&M has looked good this season on defense, especially against the run. The Aggies offensive line is big and physical, which will draw more defenders in the box. Arkansas’ zone defense in the secondary will be challenged against Mond’s arm and experience.
Prediction: Arkansas 28, Texas A&M 31
Photo credit: Bleacher Report; No. 28 Isiah Spiller vs. MSU