Five Reasons Why Arkansas Will Beat LSU

Written by Ryan Wright

Twitter: @HogManInLA

If recent history has taught us anything about the LSU vs. Arkansas SEC West showdown, that it is a must-see game for college football fans. When No. 19 LSU rolls into Fayetteville on Saturday, expect another tight college football game with recruiting trail bragging rights and big bowl possibilities on the line in the Battle of the Boot.

Over the past 12 years, LSU and Arkansas have fought tooth and nail on the gridiron with LSU coming out ahead six times to the Hogs five. The Tigers had a streak of three wins from 2011 to 2013 but even in Bret Bielema’s first season in Fayetteville, a 3-9 campaign, the game was close. Then head coach Les Miles walked away from Razorback Stadium with a 31-21 win but over the past two seasons Bielema has gotten the better of the Tigers winning 17-0 in 2014 and 31-14 last season. Both wins for the Hogs were in upset fashion with LSU ranked No. 20 in 2014 and No. 9 a year ago.

As the seasons change, so do the faces on the sidelines and names on the back of the jerseys. But at the heart of the matchup will still be two teams that want to pound and ground in the run game in hopes of breaking the will of their opponent. Both squads are coming off big games against higher ranked opponents. For LSU, a heartbreaking 10-0 home loss to No. 1 Alabama. For the Hogs a 31-10 home win over then- No. 10 Florida.

Arkansas has taken advantage of LSU’s loss of steam on the field, mentally, emotionally, and physically, playing the Tigers in consecutive seasons after defeats at the hand of Alabama. Is this the season LSU rebounds from a hard fought Bama game for a win against Arkansas? Or will the Hogs capitalize on home field advantage and forward momentum adding a fourth win against a Top 25 ranked team this season?

Game Information

Location: Fayetteville, Arkansas

Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET

Coverage: ESPN

Line: LSU -7

Five Reasons Arkansas Could Beat LSU

The Alabama Aftershock

Year after year, teams that have played Alabama rarely go on to have a great game the next time out on the gridiron. Teams change their schedule around in hopes of beating Alabama trying to get a bye week ahead of the Crimson Tide just to get ready. The toll the Tide puts on another team with their massive offensive linemen, tough running game, and top notch defense absolutely wears out the opposition. The aftershock of playing Alabama adds up emotionally with the pre-game hype and the downfall of defeat. The mental aspect of trying to play mistake free football and the physical nature of the game with all the hard hits against top collegiate players is exhausting; even to watch.

Per the rankings and stats, Arkansas did not have an easy trip out last week taking on a Top 5 rated team defense in Florida. The Hogs made it look easy by winning at the line of scrimmage. The Hogs have now faced tough defenses in Alabama, Auburn, and Florida, in consecutive games. There will be no shellshock for the Hogs hitting the field against a very talented LSU defense.

Will LSU have enough gas left in the tank for all four quarters against the Razorbacks?

Stopping the Run

Arkansas pulled a 1-80 on defense from the Auburn game. Against the Tigers, Arkansas allowed 543 yards on the ground off 57 carries and seven scores. Against Florida, the Hogs looked like one of the top teams in the nation holding the Gators to 14 yards rushing off 12 attempts.

Alabama, is a beast of a different nature, but did hold LSU’s praised rushing attack to 33 yards off 27 carries. Neither Leonard Fournette nor Derrius Guice could get on track. Fournette ended the game with a season-low 35 yards off 17 carries while Guice had eight yards off two totes.

Last season the Hogs limited Fournette to 91 yards on 19 carries with one touchdown. A repeat of a similar performance should be trouble for the Tigers as long as Guice is not cut loose.

LSU’s Passing Offense

Over the last three seasons, no one has praised the Hogs pass defense as one of the SEC’s best much less one of the nation’s best. Same can be said about LSU’s passing attack. After Tigers’ starting quarterback Danny Etling turned in an 11-of-24 game in the pocket for 92 yards and one interception against Bama, LSU’s pass defense is now rated No. 110 in the nation out of 128 FBS programs averaging 172 yards per game.

Statistically, Arkansas is a much improved pass defense this season over last. The Hog are allowing 208 yards per contest, ranked No. 43 in the nation, as opposed to 275 yards per in 2015, ranked No. 117. The Hogs have a very solid defensive front that can pressure Etling into quick throws.

LSU has talented receivers in Malachi Dupre and Travin Dural. Dupre leads the team with 26 receptions for 305 yards with two scores. Dural has 25 receptions for 249 yards and just one touchdown. Junior receiver DJ Clark is LSU’s big play threat averaging 16.5 yards per reception leading the team with three scores.

If Arkansas can limit LSU’s rushing attack forcing Etling to win on third down and long, the Hogs will be in business. Stats suggest this would be a weakness for the Hogs, only winning on third down 45 percent of the time but Etling has not consistently shown big play ability against SEC competition.

Arkansas’ Run Game Potential

Two quality SEC wins does not make a season, but if the Hogs can carry some momentum found against Ole Miss and Florida into the LSU game in the rushing attack, this will be another long day for LSU in Fayetteville.

Arkansas starting tailback Rawleigh Williams just hit 148 yards with two scores on 26 carries against the Gators vaulted defense. Williams is second in the SEC in rushing on the season with 955 yards. Backup Devwah Whaley is coming on of late with 383 yards off 71 totes with one score proving to be a valuable piece of the offense.

LSU is one of the top rush defenses in the nation allowing just 118 yards, ranked No. 19 in FBS. Arkansas starting quarterback Austin Allen is not Jalen Hurts, thus LSU can pin their ears back set on the tailback on running downs and know that Allen is not a scrambler that will change the game with his legs.

Under a different set of circumstances but… last season the Hogs rushed for 299 yards off 40 attempts with three scores. The strong ground game was led by early NFL Draft entry Alex Collins. Collins tagged LSU for 141 yards on 16 carries with two scores. Backup Kody Walker even got in on the action rushing 17 times for 88 yards.

Arkansas offensive coordinator Dan Enos is familiar with LSU’s defense but all is predicated on the Hogs’ offensive line. The line has been hit and miss this season. If the line gets a push against LSU like they did against Florida, this should be an Arkansas victory.

Austin Allen

Going into the season, Arkansas starting quarterback Austin Allen was not on anyone’s radar as one of the SEC’s best. The first-year starter has been pretty amazing all things considered and could possibly earn first-team All-SEC honors at the end of the season. Allen is third in the conference with 2,291 yards, tied for a conference-high 19 touchdowns tossed, and is second behind Auburn’s Sean White in QB Rating at 148.8.

Allen has played big in big games netting 371 yards against A&M, 400 against Alabama, and 243 against Florida. One way or another, Allen will get the ball to his receivers. If the line can protect, he will move the chains against LSU.

When Allen drops back to pass, he is looking for senior receivers Drew Morgan and Keon Hatcher and tight end Jeremy Sprinkle. Morgan has 48 receptions for 515 yards with three scores while Hatcher has 29 receptions for 441 yards with a team-high five touchdowns. Sprinkle is automatic when the ball hits his hands securing 23 passes for 266 yards with four scores.

The Tigers’ secondary is one of the nation’s best, but so was Florida and Alabama. LSU ranks No. 25 in the nation limiting teams to 196 yards per game. Surprisingly enough, Jacksonville State has had the best success against LSU’s secondary throwing for 248 yards. Ole Miss, with preseason All-SEC quarterback Chad Kelly in the pocket, only managed 218 yards.

Arkansas’ entire offense is predicated off the offensive linemen. If LSU pushes them back, it’ll be a long day for the Hogs in Fayetteville.

 

Photo credit: saturdayblitz.com; No. 22 Rawleigh Williams breaks a long run against Florida.