Fix is in for Big Ten in Third 2016 College Football Playoff Rankings

Written by Ryan Wright

Twitter: @HogManInLA

Fans of the Big Ten were elated on Tuesday night when the College Football Playoff Selection Committee announced their third rankings of the 2016 season placing both Ohio State and Michigan into the Top 4. College football fans across the country that do not have a Big Ten bias, groaned at the new rankings seeing the committee is not hiding which teams they want in the playoff regardless of wins and losses.

Over the weekend Ohio State trounced Maryland 62-3 keeping their hopes alive for a shot at the playoff. With the win, and the slew of losses within the Top 5 (Clemson, Michigan, and Washington), the Buckeyes jumped from No. 5 to No. 2 in this week’s rankings.

Where the fix appears to be in is with Michigan. The Wolverines, who somehow are getting a lot of “love” on the eyeball test, lost on the road 14-13 to an unranked Iowa Hawkeyes squad on Saturday. Iowa is now 6-4 on the season with losses to FCS North Dakota State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Penn State. Michigan has just one win over a team that was ranked at the time of play, then- No. 8 Wisconsin (14-7). Wins against Colorado, now ranked No. 10, and Penn State, ranked No. 8, look good for now. Yet USA Today ranks Michigan’s schedule to date No. 49 in the nation out of 128 FBS teams. Ohio State’s schedule is ranked No. 31.

Potential Troubles Ahead

With Michigan only falling one spot from No. 2 to No. 3, this shows the selection committee has no confidence in Louisville and truly does not care when a team suffers a loss taking caliber of play at the end of the season or time of rankings off the table. The Cardinals were ranked No. 6 last week, beat Wake Forest 44-12, but only moved up one spot in the latest poll. The Cardinals’ strength of schedule is not favorable sitting at No. 64, but their only loss was to Clemson (42-36) at Clemson, with the Tigers ranked No. 5 at the time of play. The Cardinals have one quality win over then- No. 2 Florida State, which has not held up as well in recent weeks. FSU is ranked No. 17 this week.

The playoff committee has set it up for the presumed SEC (Alabama), Big Ten (Michigan or Ohio State), and ACC (Clemson) conference winners to take their spot in the playoff with the winner of the Michigan/Ohio State game knocking the other out of the way.

Here is where things get even trickier, one spot remains open.

The demotion of Washington to No. 6 leaves Louisville with an opportunity to sneak into the playoff as an at-large team. The Huskies could still play their way into the Top 4 if they win out and capture the Pac-12 Conference Championship Game. Washington still has regular season games against Arizona State and No. 22 Washington State to make up some ground.

The Pac-12 South is still up for grabs with No. 10 Colorado holding a one-game lead over No. 13 USC and No. 12 Utah, all teams that more than likely will be ranked when the Pac-12 Championship Game kicks off.

IF Ohio State beats Michigan at home on Nov. 26, Penn State wins the Big Ten East. IF Michigan topples Ohio State, the Wolverines win the Big Ten East. Penn State lost to Michigan 49-10 on Sept. 24 but beat Ohio State 24-21 on Oct. 22. The selection committee has to privately hope for a Michigan win or their rankings to date will be scrutinized and horribly jumbled going forward.

All the eggs put into Michigan’s basket with this week’s rankings could blow up in their respective faces. A two-loss Penn State or two-loss Nebraska or Wisconsin, or even a three-loss Minnesota squad could end up winning the Big Ten Championship Game. Since the committee has not budged on recent OSU and Michigan losses, how could they put either team into the playoff over the Big Ten Championship Game winner?

Besides Louisville, the other team with the most to gain in the coming weeks is Oklahoma. The Sooners are 8-2 with games left against No. 14 West Virginia and Oklahoma State, two quality opponents. Winning out, with other teams losing, should push OU forward. USA Today ranks OU’s schedule No. 27 in the country with wins over two teams that were ranked at the time of play, No. 21 TCU (52-46) and Saturday’s 45-24 win over No. 25 Baylor. Neither team is currently ranked. The losses came against Houston (33-23) at NRG Stadium and a blistering 45-24 home loss to then- No. 3 Ohio State.

Because the Big 12 does not have a championship game, Oklahoma will not get that thirteenth game against a potentially ranked opponent to help out their resume. All the Sooners will have over Louisville is a conference championship, which should mean something, but the Cardinals are ahead of them in the rankings. Also, if Louisville beats Houston this weekend in Houston, the team that beat Oklahoma in Houston, how could the committee leap frog OU over Louisville based on this week’s treatment of Michigan?

The other flaw in the rankings – how can an undefeated Western Michigan team not crack the Top 20? They have wins over Northwestern and Illinois, two Big Ten teams that all the other Big Ten fans would chalk up as an important, not impressive, but important conference victories for the likes of Nebraska, Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin; neither team has played Penn State this season. The Broncos may not be a Top 10 or Top 15 team, but might be deserving of a little more credit than given. Shouldn’t wins be as important as a “quality loss?” Power Five Conference teams would argue one can only play and beat the teams on their schedule. If Western Michigan had the cache that Boise State or Houston, things would be different.

Top Week 12 Games

No. 5 Louisville at Houston

Virginia Tech at Notre Dame

No. 2 Ohio State at Michigan State

Maryland at No. 18 Nebraska

No. 7 Wisconsin at Purdue

No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 14 West Virginia

No. 11 Oklahoma State at TCU

No. 23 Florida at No. 16 LSU

Oregon at No. 12 Utah

No. 13 USC at UCLA

No. 22 Washington State at No. 10 Colorado

Indiana at No. 3 Michigan

Buffalo at No. 21 Western Michigan

Third College Football Playoff Committee Rankings of 2016

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. Clemson
5. Louisville
6. Washington
7. Wisconsin
8. Penn State
9. Oklahoma
10. Colorado
11. Oklahoma State
12. Utah
13. USC
14. West Virginia
15. Auburn
16. LSU
17. Florida State
18. Nebraska
19. Tennessee
20. Boise State
21. Western Michigan
22. Washington State
23. Florida
24. Stanford
25. Texas A&M

 

Click the link for current AP Rankings on RNG.

Photo credit: fbsschedules.com; Louisville Cardinals take the field.