LSU Contingent Looking to Ouster Les Miles Erring on a Likely Program Set Back

Written by Ryan Wright

Twitter: @HogManInLA

Scuttlebutt around the college football campfire is LSU head coach Les Miles is in jeopardy of losing his job but a quick look around the SEC will show replacing a head coach is not always the best way to right the proverbial ship.

An amazing turnaround is underway for Miles and company after starting the season 7-0, should have been 8-0 but the Week 1 contest verses McNeese State was cancelled due to inclement weather. As is, the Tigers are out of the AP Top 25 and have lost three consecutive conference games after ascending to the No. 2 team in the nation with wins over then- No. 25 Mississippi State (21-19), No. 18 Auburn (45-21), and No. 8 Florida (35-28) among others. Everything started to unravel after a road loss to then- No. 4 Alabama (30-16). The battering of the open wound to the program’s 2015 fall gained momentum with a tough 31-14 loss to unranked Arkansas followed by a road 38-17 road loss to No. 22 Ole Miss, the same team that gave Alabama their lone loss of the season.

The Tigers are not out of the woods yet with a home date against previously ranked Texas A&M on Nov. 28 which could push the Tigers end of the regular season record to 7-4 and the prospect of a less desirable bowl invitation.

The reality is none of LSU’s losses are truly bad losses this year. Say what you will about Arkansas, the Razorbacks have underperformed by-and-large all season, especially on defense, and were a preseason Top 25 ranked team on seemingly every possible college football list in America. The pain more than anything is losing to Alabama for a fifth consecutive year, diehard fans will add that LSU should never lose to any other SEC West team ever but even Alabama loses in-conference so that is not sound reality by the LSU faithful.

What is the problem at LSU and how can the Tigers’ ship get back on track with double-digit win seasons as had from 2005 to 2007 and 2010 through 2013? A two-step process with one step being far easier than the other. The first step is a two-step process; adjust offensive philosophy and do a better job of recruiting and/or developing quarterbacks.

In 2011 when LSU made the BCS National Championship Game, all was not ideal under center with Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee taking turns trying to lead the Tigers offense. The Tigers were so dominate in every other aspect of the game overcoming average play in the pocket was easier to do leading a 13-win season.

In 2012 and 2013, Zach Mettenberger was the starting quarterback. Even then LSU was not the early developer of the mechanics, arm, and football IQ of Mettenberger. Georgia signed the Oconee County High School standout and LSU got a shot at him after he transferred to Butler Community College. Mettenberger helped guide LSU to back-to-back 10-win seasons but left the program in 2013 for the NFL. The last two seasons Brandon Harris and Anthony Jennings have been average at best in the pocket placing all the emphasis on the run game on offense with the hopes that the defense will pitch shutouts or at least stop the opposition enough to win tight games.

Instead of firing Miles, perhaps a change at offensive coordinator might be needed? On paper Cam Cameron certainly has the resume to be one of the best offensive coordinators in the game having coached at the NFL level from 1994-1996 (Washington Redskins) and then from 2002 through 2012 (San Diego Chargers OC, Miami Dolphins HC, and Baltimore Ravens OC). Cameron was supposed to be the missing link for LSU’s offense in 2013 bringing a pro-style offense that can consistently move the ball down the field with quarterback play coupled with Miles strong running attack but that has not happened year in and year out.

Alluded to previously but not expanded upon, the second step is keeping players on campus through their senior campaign. When the 2015 NFL Draft declaration deadline came and went, 74 total players across the country opted to go pro with 20 coming from the SEC. The conference that took the next biggest hit was the Pac-12 with 15 while the Big 12 had the fewest with just six players. LSU had three players declare; LB Kwon Alexander, CB Jalen Collins, and DE Danielle Hunter. Losing three players may not seem like a big deal but for the 2014 draft LSU was gutted with seven players declaring for the draft after losing 10 the year before.

Losing 20 NFL caliber players off the squad over a three-year period on top of graduating seniors rolling off the roster is difficult for any head coach to handle. The long term effects of losing marquee players early are playing underclassmen who would normally get a redshirt during their true freshman season and then be brought along slowly during their redshirt freshman year before becoming key contributors as a sophomore. That comfort is no longer in play for LSU. This reality is also something Miles cannot truly do anything about to help his own cause. How can he pressure young men from following their dreams by staying on the LSU roster for one more year without losing the team’s trust which in turn would hurt recruiting? The other option is recruit less talented players and that will not happen.

Let’s not forget that LSU is young across the board. Entering the season the Tigers had two senior starters penciled in on offense, OT Vadal Alexander and TE Dillon Gordon. The Tigers’ defense had three senior starters on defense, linebackers Lamar Louis and Deion Jones, and safety Jalen Mills. Alexander has turned in a great season but Gordon has been limited to four games played. On defense Deion Jones leads the Tigers with 81 tackles but Mills has been limited to five games played and Louis has become a key backup playing in all 10 games with two games started.

Recent history shows getting rid of a head coach in the SEC, whether by choice or otherwise, does not always work out for the program. At Arkansas, Bobby Petrino spent five seasons at the helm going 10-3 and 11-2 during his last two campaigns (2010-11) before being fired. The dramatic drop off was a 4-8 campaign in 2012 and a 3-9 record in 2013 during Bret Bielema’s first season in Fayetteville. Record wise, the Hogs have been right at average despite playing one of the toughest schedules in the nation over the last two years.

Vanderbilt had unprecedented success with James Franklin running the program from 2011-13. The Commodores made a bowl game in all three of Franklin’s years in Nashville going 9-4 in back-to-back seasons before taking the Penn State job. Derek Mason has not had the same success going 3-9 in 2014 and are now 4-7 with a tough season ending game against Tennessee.

Perhaps the biggest fail of a university getting rid of a successful head coach is the tale of Tennessee. After 17 seasons in Knoxville, Phillip Fulmer’s services were no longer wanted after having troubles getting past Florida year after year. Fulmer brought Smokey and the Tennessee faithful a BCS National Championship in 1998 going 13-0 and turned in four 10-win seasons after the storybook national title winning season but a 5-7 mark in 2008 was the death nail in his tenure with the Volunteers. Tennessee then suffered through one year with Lane Kiffin (7-6 in 2009), parts of three season with Derek Dooley with a single-season high of six wins in 2010, and are just now getting back on track under Butch Jones. Jones has back-to-back seven-win seasons with the opportunity to get to nine by this season’s end. Still, Tennessee has endured seven years since Fulmer’s ouster with nothing to show for his removal.

For every cautionary tale a fan will want to quickly point out the Florida Gators quick success under first-year head coach Jim McElwain. McElwain has the Gators flying high with a SEC East Division title and a 10-1 record with a date against Florida State on Saturday. The Will Muschamp era in Florida was up-and-down but an 11-2 season was had in 2012 under the now Auburn defensive coordinator while changing the offense from a spread/up-tempo attack to a pro-style set. Could Muschamp and company have turned in a similar season for the Gators in 2015 as McElwain and his staff given the chance? Who knows? Maybe? A debatable point that will never be solved but one cannot forget the overload of injuries that plagued the Gators during his tenure, and the lack of quarterback play. Something akin to the LSU situation. Fair or foul, the Florida administration gave Muschamp one season with new offensive coordinator Kurt Roper to lift up the offense but obviously needed just one more year to have an impact season.

A college football head coach is only as good as his staff at key positions. Top of the line players can mask some voids in talent across the roster but having an above average quarterback for a talent rich roster like LSU’s is all that is needed. This falls on the offensive coordinator to fix, a shortcoming of Cameron’s, and Miles by proxy.

Miles has turned in a record of 110 wins against 32 losses in his 11 seasons in Baton Rouge, a winning rate of 78 percent. Miles has won 10 or more games seven times and has never dipped below a record of 8-5 (2008 and 2014). LSU would have to pay Miles $15 million and his staff another $5 million to end the successful era. Let’s not forget that Miles won a BCS National Championship in 2007 four seasons after Nick Saban took the Tigers to the promise land. If Miles is willing to part with Cameron, a much easier fix, and cost effective, is showing Cameron the door and turn the offensive reigns over to someone new.

If a new head coach is brought in, perhaps said coach can give the program the little extra juice needed to overcome the Alabama roadblock and the rest of the SEC West that has popped up over the last five seasons? But then again, if the defense is great, recruiting is great, the special teams are good, and the rushing attack is awesome and all that needs to be fixed from the outside looking in is the play under center, why throw everything away to start anew when a far easier solution can be had… but then again that might be just too logical for college football fans or the LSU administration?

Photo credit: foxsports.com; Les Miles takes LSU out onto the field.