LSU Tigers at No. 10 Florida Gators Preview and Prediction
Written by Ryan Wright
Twitter: @RyanWrightRNG
The annual cross divisional SEC rivalry game between LSU and Florida hits both programs as each are reeling from upset losses. LSU (1-2) went on the road avoiding Hurricane Delta but was swept up in a different kind of storm taking a staggering 45-41 loss in Columbia to Missouri. The Gators (2-1) also went on the road in Week 3 of the SEC season meeting up with Texas A&M in College Station. The Aggies shrugged off a 52-24 loss to Alabama taking down the then- No. 4 ranked Gators 41-38. The loss is a wakeup call for both squads with each team needing to go back to the drawing board to reset some basics.
There is no easy way to frame LSU’s new 4-3 defense under Bo Pelini other than they are in trouble. The Tigers are putting points on the board and moving the ball downfield, but the defense is in shambles. Missouri was without their top two receivers and had a first-time starter under center in Connor Bazelak but was still able to rack up 586 yards of total offense against LSU. Facing Dan Mullen and his high-scoring offense in The Swamp is not a reprieve for a lost Tigers unit.
After giving up 35 points to Ole Miss and 24 to South Carolina, Florida’s defense too has shown cracks in the armor. A&M was able to exploit those shortcomings for 543 yards of total offense getting a 26-yard Seth Small chip-shot field goal for the winning score. The Aggies laid it on via the air and on the ground, opportunities LSU will look to take advantage of, if possible, on Saturday.
LSU Tigers vs. No. 10 Florida Gators
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Florida -13.5
LSU Breakdown
The good news, LSU quarterback Myles Brennan and receiver Terrace Marshall Jr. are as dangerous of a duo there is in college football. Brennan is second in the SEC in passing yards (1,112) and touchdowns (11) while completing 60 percent of his attempts. Marshall is also second in the conference in receiving yards (424) and is tied for the conference lead in touchdowns (7). Adding to Marshall’s rising legacy, he is averaging a robust 20.2 yards per reception.
The concern about Brennan being able to carry the offense after the loss of 2019 Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow has been answered, but not the loss of 1,400-yard rusher Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Entering the season with a three-headed monster in the backfield, a true lead back has not emerged. Tyrion Davis-Price has had his moments and John Emery Jr. turned in a 100-yard game against Vanderbilt but neither are cementing their place as RB1. And the third part of the talented backfield, Chris Curry, has been a no-show with just 53 yards on 14 carries.
The hope for LSU offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger is Florida’s defense remains on shaky ground for a fourth consecutive week. A&M chomped up 205 yards on the ground led by sophomore tailback Isaiah Spiller’s 27-carry 174-yard two-touchdown game. Aggies’ quarterback Kellen Mond found a new go-to in big receiver Caleb Chapman (6-5, 195). Terrace Marshall Jr. and true freshman tight end Arik Gilbert are set for a field day against the Gators’ defense. Kayshon Boutte, Racey McMath, and Jaray Jenkins can help spread the field. The success is all contingent on LSU’s offense line getting a push in the rushing attack. Netting 49 yards on 20 carries against Missouri is not going to get it done in the SEC.
Florida Breakdown
Going down the statistics, LSU and Florida are near identical in many key areas especially on offense. The Gators (464.0) and Tigers (467.3) are both averaging nearly the same amounts of total yards per game. One of the key differences, Florida is turning those opportunities into more points posting 42.3 per game, ranked No. 8 in the country, while LSU is doing well at 38.7, ranked 17th. The reason for the early season success for the Gators, third down efficiency. Florida is turning third down into another fresh set 57 percent of the time. The Tigers are one of the worst in the country, ranked 71st out of the 76 active FBS programs at getting 10 yards in three attempts.
The efficiency in the Gators’ offense rests solidly on the shoulders of quarterback Kyle Trask. Trask is fifth in the conference in passing yards (996), but leads all in touchdowns tossed (14) and is third in completion percentage (72) and QB Rating (196). The Gators relied heavily on Trask’s arm against the Aggies seeing him pass for 312 yards with four scores off a 23 of 32 performance. The not-so-secret weapon in Trask’s arsenal is tight end Kyle Pitts. The big junior target has secured 17 passes for 274 yards tying for the lead in touchdowns (7) with Marshall. The player sure to draw coverage from LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. is receiver Kadarius Toney; this is a “must see” matchup.
While both teams are prolific in airing it out, neither team is great at getting it done on the ground. The Gators are better than LSU in the rushing attack, 122 yards per game compared to 97, but LSU has had far more success stopping the run, 114 per game to 164. The team that can control the trenches can control the game.
Final Analysis
As of this post, all bets are off on what Florida may bring to the field on Saturday, if the game actually happens. Coach Mullen suspended all team activities on Tuesday after a COVID-19 outbreak on the team affecting at least five of his players. Which players tested positive and which players might be held out due to direct contact are unknowns. If the game is pushed, the likely makeup date is Dec. 12.
If the game goes forward as planned with no key starters lost for either squad, the Gators hold the advantage. The loss to A&M may have been an upset on paper, but the Aggies are a talented squad and were playing at home. LSU’s loss to Missouri had to further split an already deteriorating relationship between head coach Ed Orgeron and defensive coordinator Bo Pelini. For the die-hard college football fans, think LSU in 2017 with offensive coordinator Matt Canada.
The outcome of the game for Florida all depends on who is available on Saturday.
Prediction: Florida 38, LSU 28
Photo credit: Bleacher Report; Kyle Trask vs. Ole Miss