LSU Tigers vs. Auburn Tigers Preview and Prediction
Written by Ryan Wright
Twitter: @RyanWrightRNG
College football fans are in for a treat on Saturday when SEC heavyweights LSU (2-2) and Auburn (3-2) meet in Jordan-Hare Stadium. Both squads are in unusual circumstances meeting as unranked opponents for the first time since the 1999 season, but each are still hopeful for a shot at the SEC West title with Alabama lurking in the distance.
A trend is developing with LSU, one head coach Ed Orgeron seeks to put to rest after facing Auburn; and that trend is losing a close one, then win in blowout fashion. The topsy-turvy nature of the season had the Tigers forgoing a home game against Missouri because of Hurricane Delta switching venues to Columbia only to walk away with a 45-41 defeat. An unscheduled bye came due to COVID-19 rules when Florida had to push their meeting with the Tigers to Dec. 12. The extra week of practice time paid off seeing LSU romp on the visiting South Carolina Gamecocks 52-24. Has the proverbial ship been righted, or are more troubles ahead with a very young squad?
If Auburn has been anything this season, they have been lucky benefiting from questionable calls by SEC refs in three games that have resulted in three victories. The Tigers snuck out of Oxford with a 35-28 win against the Rebels sealing the deal on a 58-yard Bo Nix to Seth Williams connection with 1:11 left in regulation. With LSU on their level in SEC circles, will the favorable calls still come or can Auburn live and die by the proverbial sword on their own?
LSU vs. Auburn
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Spread: LSU -2
When LSU Has the Ball
With starting quarterback Myles Brennan out due to an abdominal tear, true freshman T.J. Finley stepped into the LSU spotlight. In his first collegiate action, Finley looked like a seasoned veteran completing 17-of-21 passes for 265 yards with two scores throwing just one early pick while adding a rushing touchdown. The play calling and quick decisions by Finley kept his jersey clean not taking a sack. Finley did a great job of distributing the ball finding six different targets, but kept feeding one of the conference’s best, Terrace Marshall Jr. Marshall tacked on six more receptions, 88 yards, and two touchdowns to his resume against South Carolina.
What had been missing from the Tigers’ offense all season arrived at the right time last weekend when the ground game produced 276 yards and three touchdowns. Tyrion Davis-Price had his best game of the year carrying the pigskin 22 times for 135 yards with a score. John Emery Jr. jumped into the mix toting the ball 18 times for 88 yards with a touchdown.
With underclassmen lining Kevin Steele’s defense, Auburn has fallen way off pace from a season ago. The Tigers were one of the nation’s best limiting teams to 337 yards per game but have allowed that to balloon to 400 per appearance in 2020. The opposition’s scoring is up from 19.5 to 25 per game. One of the failures has been against the run allowing nearly 60 more yards a game up to 180. Both Georgia and Ole Miss went over 200 against these Tigers, can LSU accomplish the same feat?
When Auburn Has the Ball
As the season hits the midway point for Auburn, the rushing attack has become the team’s strength. True freshman Tank Bigsby has filled the role for limited starter Shaun Shivers becoming the conference’s third leading rusher (432). After picking up 14 total carries in the first two games, Bigsby has carried the ball at least 16 times in each of the last three games posting 111 yards or more in each showing. When the offense needed him against the Rebels, Bigsby grounded it out going for 129 yards with a season-best two rushing touchdowns.
Against a troubled Ole Miss defense, Bo Nix put together one of his better games of the season hitting 23-of-30 attempts for 238 yards with the TD to Williams and ended a 10-play drive in the second with a four-yard rushing score. The only team to throw for less yards against the Rebels this season was Kentucky (151), a heavy-heavy-running team. The 221 yards passing per game in coordinator Chad Morris’ offense is not going to cut it against the elite SEC teams.
Against a quality opponent, LSU put together their best all-around game on defense of the young season. Still, the Tigers granted 403 yards of offense to the Gamecocks, but did a great job on third downs holding USC to 3-of-10. Kevin Harris, another elite talent in-conference, hit the Tigers for 126 yards on 12 carries with two scores. Bigsby or Shiver will have to replicate that performance for Auburn to notch a win.
Final Analysis
If LSU can keep up the effort on the ground as seen against USC, offense verses offense, Nix and company cannot keep up. If Finley showed to many tendencies in his first start, Steele will find them, but can his defense exploit those weaknesses?
The luck for the “Gus Bus” runs out in this one.
Prediction: LSU 31, Auburn 21
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Photo credit: SI.com; LSU QB TJ Finley