Middle Tennessee vs. No. 16 Marshall Preview and Prediction
Written by Ryan Wright
Twitter: @RyanWrightRNG
College football action in Conference USA has been tight throughout the 2020 season with teams within one or two wins of one another in route to the conference championship game. One team trying to separate from the pack is Marshall. When Middle Tennessee travels to Huntington on Saturday, the plan is to play spoiler to the No. 16 Thundering Herd seeking their third consecutive win in the series.
The Blue Raiders (2-5) will be as rested and healthy as possible entering Joan C. Edwards Stadium after a two-week bye, one that included a postponement against Charlotte (Nov. 7). Momentum had been building with the Raiders winning two of their last three contests taking down Florida International and Rice. The blueprint for MTSU’s success on the field relies on the arm and leg talents of quarterback Asher O’Hara.
The Herd (6-0) may be known for their play on offense, but it is their defense winning games on the gridiron. Nailing down teams to 9.5 points per game, this unit has it all – run stoppers, pass rushers, and ballhawks in the secondary. Should a shootout develop, the offense is well-balanced destroying determined opponents via an unrelenting rushing attack with five different receivers on any given drive that can move the chains.
Middle Tennessee vs Marshall
Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBSS
Spread: Marshall -23.5
When Middle Tennessee Has the Ball
When catching the broadcast on TV, get ready for a heavy dose of well-deserved Asher O’Hara lines. O’Hara is dynamic in more ways than one leading CUSA in passing yards (1,509), tied atop the conference in completion percentage among those qualifying (65.2), and is tied for second in passing touchdowns (11). Where Raiders fans need to worry is when O’Hara tries to force a pass having thrown eight interceptions, also tied atop CUSA. Because of his big play abilities, he also tends to hold onto the ball too long leading the conference in another dubious honor, sacks taken (18).
A reason O’Hara may press on passing downs, a lack of a strong rushing attack. The Raiders are nearing the bottom third of the FBS ranks averaging 139.6 yards per contest. Guess who is leading the team in rushing yards ranked fourth in-conference, O’Hara. Off 139 carries, the junior has covered 476 yards with six touchdowns. When he does hand the ball off, Chanton Mobley and Jayy McDonald have been effective, each averaging close to 5-yards per carry.
With the nation’s third best defense, Marshall will key on O’Hara and seek to take away his top receiver Jarrin Pierce (46/451/2). The Herd lives in the opponent’s backfield with 36 tackles for a loss with 21 sacks registered. Redshirt senior linebacker Tavante Beckett is the thumper in the box for Marshall leading the team in tackles (58) and fumble recoveries (3) with five tackles for a loss.
When Marshall Has the Ball
Matching yard for yard with O’Hara is freshman quarterback Grant Wells. Wells jumped out of the gate hot passing for 307 yards with four scores against Eastern Kentucky but has been less of a playmaker and more of a field general in the five games since. With a strong defense and a solid ground attack, all Wells needs to do is play his game avoid taking sacks and committing turnovers. Driving defenses crazy is how efficiently Wells spreads the ball out to his receivers. Redshirt senior tight end Xavier Gaines is the leader of this unit with 19 receptions for 231 yards and three scores.
Setting up the passing game is one of the nation’s best rushing attacks, ranked 26th out of 123 D-I teams in action. Helping the team compile 209 yards per outing are Brenden Knox and Sheldon Evans. With fewer carries than the conference leaders, Knox is third in CUSA with 674 yards reaching the end zone nine times. Evans has 200 yards off 47 touches with three scores of his own.
Opposing offenses have been having a field day lighting up the score board against the Blue Raiders. While teams are posting 37 each meeting, they are netting 245.9 yards per game on the ground. Trying to corral Marshall’s tailbacks is the task at hand for MTSU.
Final Analysis
One of the nation’s best defenses against a one-man offense seems like a losing proposition for O’Hara. Marshall’s offense is too dynamic to be stymied even if the run game is limited for parts of a quarter here and there. Keeping it on the ground should help keep the final score low especially with a chance of rain during the game.
Prediction: Marshall 35, MTSU 10
Photo credit: News Break; No. 20 Brenden Knox